Sorry Kemi, but Farage’s Reform is the real opposition to Starmer

While the Conservatives stumble in search of relevance, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has seized the spotlight as Labour’s true challenger. Forget Kemi Badenoch’s protestations—Keir Starmer’s real battle is against populist fire, not Tory embers.

Let’s be perfectly candid: the serious bits of politics, those that demand formidable talent and intellectual gusto, are beginning to look less like a battle between Labour and the Tories, and more like a punch-up between Sir Keir and Nigel Farage’s Reform. It’s as though our sat-nav of British politics has decided to detour from the predictable “Conservative vs Labour” road and veer dangerously towards “populist clown car vs cautious earnestness”.

According to that stirring Bloomberg opus—let’s call it the canny Adrian Wooldridge dossier—it’s Farage and Reform UK, not whichever Rishi-less rump remains of the Conservatives, who occupy the true mantle of Opposition. And he’s quite right to suggest as much. Labour’s uneasy incumbency doesn’t need a nostalgic Tory defeat so much as it needs something radical—some spark—to truly galvanise. And lo! That spark has arrived in the form of a party that revels in grievance, culture wars, and incendiary sloganeering, wrapped in a Union Jack, and slapped firmly across the headlines.

Now, I’ll confess: I had my doubts. The Tories, apparently toothless though they seem, have had the fare of a timeshare spoon to sage electoral mischief. But the rise of Reform is not a mere fill-in-the-gap phenomenon; it is real opposition. Despite their relative parliamentary modesty, Reform UK have capitalised on summer disquiet and Labour’s taciturn approach to dominating narrative—hardly the mark of a party content with being mere theatre, rather than a serious panto villain.

Let’s not mince words. Labour’s summer motto seems to have been: “If we speak less, we might survive the lighting strike.” Meanwhile, Reform threw itself into our unguarded skies with a barrage of immigration rhetoric, welfare us-against-them framing, and a creeping mastery of the media soundbite  . Populist politics at its, er, most refined.

And yet, forgive me if I bristle when Kemi Badenoch, whispering in between tweets, suggests otherwise. Kemi, dear, pull up a chair. Everyone with a functioning moral compass—and a toe dipped into the latest polling—knows that Reform UK, not your current Conservative ensemble, are Labour’s chief electoral challenge. Polling isn’t speculation; it’s reflection. As The Financial Times and others warn, business leaders are worried Labour might cede political ground unless they reassert themselves swiftly.

There is something deliciously ironic about a party once derided for being a “clown show” now being viewed as the firm bedrock of Opposition. And yet, there it is. Reform’s ascendant narrative means Labour can no longer weaponise nostalgia for the Conservatives. Nor can it lazily allude to “the right-wing” as if it were a hazy abstraction. This isn’t an argument about ideological purity—it’s about electoral reality.

There’s more: Farage’s party has won symbolic victories. A dramatic by-election gain in Runcorn and Helsby overturned a Labour majority that seemed comfortably etched in stone—a mere six-vote margin, mind you, but enough to give boarding-up instructions to Labour HQ. And in local elections, Reform surged ahead, even gaining control of several councils, leaving the Tories gasping for relevance. That’s not just noise—it’s institutional presence.

Now, critics of my little diatribe might argue Reform lacks substance beyond the anguished slogan. They may point to Labour’s campaign for a wealth tax and a more egalitarian metaphorical reframing of national grievances—not to mention the argument, from voices like Polly Toynbee, that reforming electoral systems is Labour’s real legacy in waiting . Or that speaking truth to populism requires elevated ideas rather than shouting back.

Yet the nurse never argues the pain away. When the drizzle turns to rain, you need an umbrella – or in this case, a powerful counter-narrative. And yes, Labour is trying: a cupboard reshuffle here, a communications failure patched there . But it might want to recalibrate from “methodical cautiousness” to “competent ferocity” before Farage has swept Britain into enough local government offices to call himself a shadow Prime Minister.

There’s a final twist in this jolly tale: I suspect Labour might, if all goes disastrously, end up thanking Reform – because nothing sharpens your strategy like an opponent who refuses to be politely ignored, and instead yanks your complacent trousers down in broad daylight.

So Kemi, I recommend you empty your irony-laden snark of “he’s no threat”, toss in the washing machine with some humility, and acknowledge that yes – Farage’s Reform is the real opposition to Starmer, right now. And in politics, real is what matters.

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Sorry Kemi, but Farage’s Reform is the real opposition to Starmer